The Topps Archives Specialist

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The Numbers

    If you are reading this, please take these numbers with a grain of salt. They are ever changing as more data comes in.

     Odds are a funny, eye crossing thing. Sometimes they exist within a box (or even a case) and sometimes they don't. Blind stats would tell us that somewhere along the print line, there is a pack that holds both an Autograph and a Jersey... or even an Auto, a Jersey, a Stick and an Autoproof! "Insert Packs" usually contain only one (though I did have one pack with both a Gillies SP Auto and a Dennis Hull Stick card).

     This makes the math harder as the numbers that I have used does not account for this avoidance of the 'super pack'. I have also done some simple rounding (1:17.5 through 1:18.4 all round to 1:18). All of this usually makes the print runs of the insert cards off by a little bit.

     My print run numbers are based off of the autoproofs... which were spread over hobby and retail pack at approximatly the same odds (1:1640 and 1:1696 respectively). This means that if I combine all packs made and assume the long odds for the autoproofs, I can get approximate maximum print runs for total packs. I assume that the print run of the autoproofs was split 50% / 50%. This is a big assumption... so I am keeping track of the serial numbers on the back of the cards to get a "real world" data set for the print runs (see below).

     I have also recently discovered that the seats had an "A" and "B" insertion pattern. I wish I had a checklist of who was on "A" and who was on "B". I have noticed the  the Real World numbers suggest that some cards were shortprinted ("B"?)... however, as more data comes in, this may change. 


     In all honesty, I am starting to think that there wasn't a 50/50 split in the number of packs of hobby and retail (60/40 H/R perhaps).

I have concluded the following APPROXIMATE MINIMUM print runs (see below for the rational and real world data)

Autoproofs - 50 of each card made (Hobby and Retail)

Sticks - 207 of each card made (Hobby only)

Seats (Group "A") - 621 of each card made (Hobby only)

Seats (Group "B") - 310 of each card made (Hobby only)

Jerseys/Patches - 1708 of each card made (Hobby only)

Auto (Group "A") - 1015 of each card made  (Hobby and Retail)

Auto (group "B") - 199 of each card made  (Hobby and Retail)

Auto (Group "C") -  397 of each card made  (Hobby and Retail)

IF there are 50 Autoproofs made per card...

AND there are 4 Autoproofs in the set...

THEN there are 200 Autoproof cards produced.

2 autoproofs with the same numbering has yet to be seen...

REAL WORLD BUYBACK NUMBERS

Dionne                             ...

Clarke                              ...

Potvin                              ...

Lafleur                             ...

 

IF there are 200 Autoproof cards produced...

AND the best odds of getting an Autoproof is 1:1640 packs...

THEN there are 328000 total packs, minimum.


IF there are 20 packs in a box...

AND  there are 328000 total packs...

THEN there are 16400 total boxes.


IF there are 16960 total boxes...

AND there are 20 boxes in a case...

THEN there are 820 total cases.


I assume an even split between Hobby and Retail.

I assume that all cards from a specific tier were made in equal amounts.

IF there are 328000 total packs....

AND half of those packs are retail (no sticks)...

AND the odds of getting a Stick is 1:264 packs...

THEN there are 621 total Sticks produced.


IF there are 621 total Sticks made...

AND there are 3 sticks in the Set...

THEN there are 207 of each Stick made.

REAL WORLD STICK NUMBERS (141 Average)

           Clarke                          4870018 to 4870170                                   153

 Esposito                       4870356 to 4870476                                   121 (!)

 Hawerchuk                    5818300 to 5818447                                   148

IF there are 328000 total packs....

AND the odds of getting a Jersey is 1:8 packs...

AND half of the packs don't have Jerseys (Hobby only)...

THEN there are 20500 total Jerseys produced.


IF there are 20500 total Jerseys made...

AND there are 12 Jerseys in the Set...

THEN there are 1708 of each Jersey made.

REAL WORLD JERSEY/PATCH NUMBERS (1803 Average)    

Pete Mahovlich              4851209 to 4852996                                 1788 .  

Alex Delvecchio             2995995 to 2997774                                 1780

Billy Smith                    3549283 to 3549970                                     

                                      5180001 to 5181042                                  1730

Ed Westfall                   1997701 to 1999715                                  2015 (!)

Stan Mikita                    4892101 to 4893933                                 1833 (!)

Bobby Clarke                 3759230 to 3759868                                         .

                                      4860060 to 4860917                                 1497

Larry Robinson              3526280 to 3528152                                 1873 (!)

Brian Mullen                  3532426 to 3534344                                 1919 (!)

Bobby Smith                 5181058 to 5183160                                  2103 (!)

Grant Fuhr                     6127385 to 6129086                                 1702

Mike Gartner                 4899009 to 4899783                                        .

                                     5183455 to 5184248                                  1569                            

Andy Moog                   4062233 to 4064058                                  1826 (!)

IF there are 328000 total packs....

AND the odds of getting a Seat is 1:10 packs...

AND half those packs are retail (no seats)...

THEN there are 16400 total Seats produced.

The autograph odds reflect the average of finding a seat- this is a combination of the "A"and "B" seats.


IF there are 328000 total packs....

AND the odds of getting an "A" Seat is 1:11 packs...

AND half those packs are retail (no seats)...

THEN there are 14909 total Group "A" Seats produced.


IF there are 14909 total Group "A" seats....

AND there are 24 Group "A" seats...

THEN there are 621 total of each Group "A" Seats produced.


IF there are 328000 total packs....

AND the odds of getting a "B" Seat is 1:132 packs...

AND half those packs are retail (no seats)...

THEN there are 1243 total Group "B" Seats produced.


IF there are 1243 total Group "B" seats....

AND there are 4 Group "B" seats (merge same player seats)...

THEN there are 310 total of each Group "B" Seats produced.

REAL WORLD SEAT NUMBERS (520 Average for A, 310 Average for B)

BOSTON

John Bucyk                                5834477 to 5835206                                   730 (!)                               

Wayne Cashman                        4770178 to 4770715                                   538

Gerry Cheevers                          5793907 to 5794352                                    446                               

Terry O'Reilly                             6143740 to 6144070                                     331                                B?

Derek Sanderson                        5816157 to 5816405                                    249                                B?                          

CHICAGO

Tony Esposito                              4880386 to 4880949                                    564

Glenn Hall                                     5825170 to 5825652                                   483

Ken Hodge                                   5843318 to 5843517                                    200                               B?            

Dennis Hull                                   5806002 

                                                    5807267 to 5807723

                                                    5843687 to 5843749                                    521

Stan Mikita                                    5817561 to 5818060                                    500

Pierre Pilote                                   5796958 to 5797538                                   581

Doug Wilson                                  5796464 to 5797041                                   578

DETROIT

Alex Delvecchio                              5815375 to 5815790                                 416

Marcel Dionne                                4780079 to 4780722                                  644 (!)

Norm Ullman                                  4880016 to 4880286    

                                                     5816625 to 5816959                                  607

TORONTO

Darryl Sittler                                   5808438 to 5808924                                 487                       

MINNESOTA

Bobby Smith                                  5835973 to 5836455                                  483

Neal Broten                                    6144480 to 6144661                                  182                            B?

MONTREAL

Yvon Cournoyer                               5844060 to 5844529                                 470

Guy Lafleur                                     5825953 to 5826617                                  665 (!)

Guy Lapointe                                  5842390 to 5842921                                 532                      

Jaques Lemaire                               5809003 to 5809694                                 692 (!)

Larry Robinson                               5807846 to 5808280                                  435

Serge Savard                                 5826749 to 5827275                                   527

Steve Shutt                                    5835238 to 5835856                                  619

PITTSBURGH 

Pierre Larouche                              4900003 to 4900323                                  321 (!)                  B?

Bryan Trottier                                  6142941 to 6143379                                  439

ST. LOUIS

Bernie Federko                              5827514 to 5827856                                    343 (!)                B?

IF there are 328000 total packs....

AND the odds of getting an Autograph is 1:17 packs...

THEN there are 19294 total Autographs produced.

The autograph odds reflect the average of finding an autograph - this is a combination of the "A", "B" and "C" autographs.

IF there are 328000 total packs....

AND the odds of getting an "C" Autograph is 1:825 packs...

THEN there are 397 total Autographs produced.

IF there are 397 total "C" Autographs made...

AND there are 1 "C" Autograph in the set...

THEN there are 397 "C" Autographs made.


IF there are 328000 total packs....

AND the odds of getting an "B" Autograph is 1:150 packs...

THEN there are 2187 total Autographs produced.

IF there are 2187 total "B" Autographs made...

AND there are 11 "B" Autograph in the set...

THEN there are 199 "B" Autographs made.


IF there are 328000 total packs....

AND the odds of getting an "A" Autograph is 1:19 packs...

THEN there are 17263 total Autographs produced.

IF there are 17263 total "A" Autographs made...

AND there are 17 "A" Autograph in the set...

THEN there are 1015 "A" Autographs made

 

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